The Population Bust

The population bust

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Category: Opinion

27 Aug 2014

Written by The BusinessMirror Editorial

THERE is something in our culture that helps us avoid planning for the longer term. This quality manifests itself in many diverse ways. “Preventive maintenance” usually means knowing what part to buy when the machine breaks down. The worst case is the one like the Metro Rail Transit Line 3, where preventive maintenance means thinking about knowing eventually which part to buy.

But thinking about and planning for the future can be critical if a nation does not want to be overtaken by events that get completely out of control.

The age demographic of a country today is vitally important to its future tomorrow. The best situation would probably be for a nation to reach an ideal population size and then to balance the birth and death rate. But this sort of social engineering is difficult, at best, and often has unintended consequences.

During the leadership of Mao Zedong, there were massive changes in Chinese demographics. The crude birth rate fell from 37 per 1,000 to 20. Infant mortality dropped from 227 per 1,000 in 1949 to 53 per 1,000 in 1981. Life expectancy increased from 35 years to 66 in 1976.

But along the way, the Chinese government bought into the idea of a global overpopulation disaster, even as its own birth rate was declining. In 1979 the one-child policy was implemented and was estimated to have averted some 200 million births.

However, the unintended consequence is that, in 2030—only 16 years from now—China’s population will begin to shrink and grow much older. Even now, there are about 20 million Chinese males who will never find a wife and raise a family because there are not enough women.

China announced the decision to further relax its one-child policy last November. Under the new policy, families can have two children if one parent is an only child. This aims to stop the demographic disaster of the decades-long drop in the number of births. However, it is a failure, as less than 3 percent of the 11 million Chinese couples eligible for another child applied for permission by the end of May.

Some of the consequences by 2030 will be higher wages, as there will be a smaller labor force. Other economic results include less demand for all types of goods and services, as it is the younger people who spend big money, not the old folks.

The Philippines will hit the age demographic “sweet spot” with majority of Filipinos in the working-age group in 2045. Asia will be changed dramatically in the next 25 years.

Link to the article 

Discussion Board Guidelines

The goal is to achieve real-world applications of geographic concepts learned in class through weekly news analyses.

Discussion board instructions

1. Read the post from Mr. Barnes on the discussion board for the sub-topic currently being studied in class (ex. Environment 3).

2. Provide analysis of the post by applying geographic theories, tools or concepts that can be related to the article. The length should be 50-100 words only!  This post is due by the end of the day on Friday.

3. Comment on someone else's post.  Challenge their conviction by responding critically to what they've said.  This is due by the end of the day on Sunday.

Do:

• relate your post to what we're learning.
• keep discussions going by commenting multiple posts.
• insert links to related information.
• use statistics, geographic terminology, theories and concepts.
• include a country/example in your post.

Do not:

• summarise the article.
• create new topics (if you want to do that, join reddit).
• use inappropriate language.

Weekly Discussion Board Rubric

Criteria	Response to Article
3	The response or comment has been effectively applied to the original post.  A clear, thoughtful critical analysis has been made. There is no superfluous material or repetition. An additional response comment has been made meeting the same conditions.
2	The response has been mostly applied to the article, but there are possible omissions or inaccuracies.  The analysis is mostly critical but lacks depth or development.  Response tends to be more descriptive. A response comment is not made.
1	A response is not been made, or the response is vague or merely summarises the original post.  The post is mostly descriptive with little to no analysis.  The post is off topic without relating to what we're studying. No response comment is made.

IB geography differentiation strategy

I don't blog often so I'm going to keep this short.

When I was working at the International School of Bangkok years ago, I took a two week course on differentiation taught by Bill and Ochan Powell.  They offered many great strategies for how to differentiate instruction in the classroom from simple "think, pair, share stuff" to more complex "cognitive coaching."  It really was a bulldozer of information.

But there was this one strategy I couldn't think of how to implement, until now, that really struck me as the most powerful.  Over the last couple of days, as I struggle for more and more ways to reach all of my juniors before the end of the semester and all of my seniors before their final exams in May, I think I may have managed a way to put this theory to practice.

If you teach IB geography, you know about command terms and assessment objectives (AO).  Command terms are basically just words either in the syllabus or within the questions on the exam that determine the depth of the answer.  For example, the answer to a question that asks the student to Describe is going to be considerably less in depth than Analyze.  Command terms (or sometimes referred to as "command words") are found within every IB subject, I think, and are more or less modeled after Bloom's Taxonomy.  This is partially evidenced by the fact that each IB geography command term is given a different assessment objective.  To use the above example, a question that asks a student to Describe is only needing an answer that shows the student's knowledge and understanding of the subject/content/topic.  Likewise, a question that asks a student to Analyze needs more information: not only does the student need to have knowledge and understanding but also must be able to take that information and synthesize the information or "create" something in a way so that all of the separate knowledge makes a completely new whole.  Again, if you teach IB geography, then you know this.  The following is what I'm proposing (adapted from some math teacher Bill and Ochan Powell talked about):

So just like on a ski hill you have different difficulties of runs (see below).  You've got green circles which indicate easy/beginner runs, you've got blue squares which indicate intermediate/challenging runs and you've got the ever famous black diamond which indicates the most advanced/difficult runs.  Beginner skiers can start off with the most basic of runs and as they improve, become more comfortable and gain confidence they have the ability to choose progressively more advanced runs.  The beauty is that everyone can ski and progress together regardless of ability level because they've been given the opportunity to choose.

My plan is to apply this concept to IB geography.  Now that at least 10 exams have been given and I know what command terms the students are likely to see, I'm just going to create my own tests that mirror these ski hill difficulty ratings and command terms/assessment objectives.

Green circle - AO1 command terms

Blue square - AO1/AO2 command terms

Black diamond - AO1/AO2/AO3 command terms

----------OPTIONAL TWO BELOW----------------

Double black diamond - Globalization

Freestyle - Mock IB exam

The idea is to have the three levels prepared at the beginning of a test day and have the students choose which test they feel is right for them.  For the seniors, its a little late considering they all need to be riding the black diamond runs by next month but for my juniors, there's no doubt time to progress.  I would say that most of them could rage a black diamond but there are definitely some who are more than likely still only ready for a blue square and even some yet who are still riding a green circle.  The beauty is that students choose for themselves with guidance from the teacher.  The teacher should obviously want them to push their limit and progress to more difficult levels but if they try a level that is still too difficult for them, then it would be expected they be allowed to find their most comfortable level with trial and error.

I'm hoping this will allow my class to be more fully integrated in differentiation.  I'm planning on setting up these tests for the end of this school year but will more than likely implement this strategy at the start of next school year.  If anyone has any comments about this teaching strategy or would like me to keep them posted, I'd love to hear from you.  I'm open to suggestions.

Environmental change

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE BLOG PROMPT

1. Select one of the seven different syllabus points below.

2. Post the syllabus point to your blog and write a brief response (2-3 paragraphs) to the point.

3. As always, comment on another person's blog post.

Extra

• Search for and watch a youtube video on e-waste.

• Identify any overlaps between these syllabus points and other units/topics you've studied in this class.

Economic interactions and flows

Prompt instructions

1. Read through this Greenfield geography site on information flows.

2. Choose an item from the site that is of particular interest to you.

3. Post what you chose to your blog and write a brief comment about why you found it interesting.

4. End your post with a question about the topic you blogged about that you'd like to have answered.

5. Don't forget to comment on someone else's post from your class.

EXTRA

Watch any of videos from the International Organizations section of the Plaid Avenger website.

Political outcomes

Find a recent online article about one of the following multi-governmental organizations (MGO):

• European Union (EU)
• Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
• North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)
• MERCOSUR (the common market of South America)

• Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)

Post an image from the article on your blog along with the link and highlight the main points from the article in no more than 3 sentences.

Then, write a brief paragraph elaborating on your own thoughts with regard to the article.

If you have extra time, refresh your memory about the nationalization of oil.

Finally, watch *The Yes Men if you can find a copy.

*Warning: Rated R

Socio-cultural exchange

Choose either the concept of cultural diffusion (voluntary/consented change in culture) or cultural imperialism (enforced/pressured change in culture) and using specific examples explain how transnational corporations either intentionally or unintentionally spread consumerism through your chosen concept.

Global interactions month

Welcome to the globalization unit!

Monday and Tuesday

• Review what was covered the week before
• Discuss comments
• Introduce new syllabus points for the week

Wednesday and Thursday

• This is when I will post a new concept in the form of a question or a prompt to my blog.  You will then read the post, perform research on the concept and respond to the question or prompt on your own blog.  Next, you will respond to the post of one of your peers by adding a comment to their post.  You will be graded on the following:

0 - No post, no comment
1 - Post late (after the weekend), no comment
2 - Post late (after the weekend), with comment
3 - Post on time, no comment OR post late (before end of the weekend) with comment
4 - Post on time, with comment

You are expected to post to your blog by Friday.  Comments are due by Monday morning the following week.

*Initial posts should follow the guidelines set in the rubric below.

Fridays

• Practice questions
• Blog posts and comments due

15 mark question globalization rubric

Chapel Presentation

Ideas for #chapelpres

• State of the Philippine economy
• The global economy and the influence of oil
• The origins of the universe
• The Detroit Pistons
• Detroit Piston-Chicago Bulls rivalry
• Geography of music
• Cultural geography
• The digital age

Introduction
- Have you ever calculated the number of hours you spend every day looking at a screen of any kind?  What about so far today?

- Have you ever Googled yourself?

- Have you ever Navered yourself?

- What is the point?  The point is two fold: 1.You should be aware of and in control of your digital footprint; 2.You should reflect on how technology affects your life.

Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, we should take a look at how we got here in the first place.  The Internet was designed in 1969 by the US government as a way to keep many computers connected even if one went offline.  The idea was to have continuous connectivity regardless of whether or not all computers were connected simultaneously.

With the advent of the world wide web in 1980's and modern computing technology beginning to reach the masses, the stage was set for average people to use the Internet to communicate with one another online (see the film You've Got mail).

From there the web has evolved into a forum where sites now allow and encourage user modifications, offer e-commerce, provide for file transfer and upload, allow giant corporations to make billions off of your social networking, and much more.  People refer to this as "web 2.0" or a sort of updated version of the original world wide web.  All sorts of statistics abound but if amazon.com was a country and you used its revenue to match it up with the GDP of all the nations in the world, it would rank as the 86th biggest economy on the planet right next to Kenya at $34.2 billion.

If I was to use one word to describe the social network, it would be "pervasive."  Think about for a second everything you have ever done online.  That's how big your digital footprint is.  Thats because we willingly give these billion dollar companies like facebook, Twitter, and Google our personal information in the form of updates, photos, and videos and in return they provide us with services that are addictive, fun, and extremely useful in some cases.  Just a fun fact: did you know that anywhere between 30 and 90% of employers admit to checking the facebook pages of their potential employees?  Regardless of their original and stated goal of these social networking companies however, at the end of the day these companies want to make as much money as possible.  They're going to do whatever they can to keep you hooked on their product.

Add to that the advent of the cellular telephone allowing mobility and access to information on the internet in the palm of your hand.  What do end up with is...screen time.  Do you know what your generation is being called in the United States?  Generation Z.  You are the digital natives.  That means you have never lived without the Internet and some form of technology to connect you to the Internet like a phone, a computer, a TV, a console, a tablet,

glasses, 

a watch,

or wearable technology.

The point is that it's easy to get caught up in it all and never questioning its value or how it changes who you are as a person.  Ask yourself...  Is facebook emotionally rewarding or does it make you envious of others?  Is an uploaded selfie to Instagram a harmless fun way to take a photo or is it narcissistic?  Is YouTube an digital learning platform or just another form of television?  Does a retweet show genuine interest or is it a sign of unoriginality?  Do Skype and Google Docs decrease time and space by connecting people from different continents or do they increase time and space by allowing friends to chat with one another even though they're in the same room together?  The point is, by all means go online, use these tools, create content, learn something.  I use them too!  I just ask you to consider first what you put online and second to think about how all of it affects you.  One of the best ways you can do this is what I mentioned at the beginning about screen time.  Put away your cell phone, laptop, television, tablet, console, PC, mp3 player for just one day.  Have a nice deep reflection about what it was like.  Then you might really be aware of the psychological affects these things have on you.

Digital natives have never lived without convenient, reliable access to the Internet and barring any dramatic unforeseen change, they probably never will.  In fact, if current trends are any indication, things will most likely grow faster and more convenient with regards to the Internet and technology before they start to slow down and cease to push the physical limits.  The power at the tips of your fingers, and maybe next time at the tip of your nose, will prove to be your greatest resource, your biggest distraction or more than likely a combination of the two.  The beauty of it all is that depends on you.  Is this how you want to live because its not how I want to live and I've made the decision: no phones, tablets, or laptops at the dinner table.

Group blog #2

Characteristics of hazards

Writing prompt
Distinguish between two chosen hazards in terms of their spatial extent, predictability, frequency, magnitude, duration, speed of onset and effects. [10 marks]

Instructions
Each group is to read the blog of a different group and answer the above writing prompt by distinguishing between their own hazard and that of the other group's.  For example, if group M worked on earthquakes for Group blog #1, they should read the blog of a group who did volcanoes, hurricanes/typhoons, droughts, or human-induced hazards and compare their own hazard's characteristics with that of the other group's.  Feel free to choose to read a post from a different class.  Post your response to your blog.

Group blog #1

Characteristics of hazards

Writing prompt 
Explain the characteristics and spatial distribution of the following hazards using at least two specific examples. [10 marks]

• Earthquakes 
• Groups A, C, and F

• Volcanoes
• Groups D and K

• Hurricanes/typhoons
• Groups B, E, and G

• Droughts
• Groups H and J

• Human-induced (technological hazard ie. BP deep water horizon oil spill or Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster)
• Groups I and L

Explanation of terms

Characteristics include, but are not limited to duration, magnitude, predictability, regularity, frequency, and speed of onset.

Spatial distribution means, where the hazard takes place.

Group blog instructions and rubric

Eruption of Mt. Pinatubo (1991)

Introduction
Greetings geography students!  I come to you from the vastness of cyberspace.  For the next week, you will live with me here in cyberspace while in class to perform research and expand your knowledge of geography.  Please read the following instructions to help you complete this assignment.

Essential Questions

• What are the characteristics of hazards?

• How are hazards distinguished?

• When does a hazard become a disaster?

Enduring Understandings

• Environmental hazards exist at the interface between physical geography and human geography.

• Natural hazard events are often exacerbated by human actions, although conversely, human-induced hazard events are also affected by natural environmental conditions.

• The principles involved in studying natural hazards are identical to those involved in studying human-induced hazards.

Objective
By the end of this assignment, you will be able to...

...draw upon detailed case studies to support any points you make about hazards and disasters.

...distinguish between hazards in terms of spatial extent, predictability, frequency, magnitude, duration, speed of onset and effects.


Goals

• Learn about hazards such as (earthquakes, volcanos, hurricanes/typhoons, human-induced)
• Perform reflective inquiry on a specific topic
• Work collaboratively in a group

Procedure

1. Check below to see what group you're in.
2. Read the most recent post from this blog at the beginning of your geography class (the post will give a writing prompt and assign topics for each group so read carefully!).
3. Divide the main roles up evenly amongst group members
1. One quarterback
2. One to two researchers
3. One typist
4. You have the remainder of the block to work as a group to respond to the writing prompt in one of the blogs from anyone in your group.  Format the post like shown below:

Subject: Group blog #1 - Group Z

Message:  (Copy and paste writing prompt)

                 (Write blog post)

    5. Blog posts are due at the end of class so don't forget to publish your post before leaving the room (#timestamp)!

Groups*

Batch 2014

Group A	Armand	Dani	Chanel
Group B	Michael	Harry	Kohjiro

Group C	Jenny	Alisha	Emily P.
Group D	Jon	Na Li	Bettina
Group E	David K.	Joan	Kevin Yoo
Group F	Alberto	Cayo	D-uane
Group G	Jordan	Terry	Cristian

Group H	Margret	David C.	Emily L.
Group I	Nick	Michaela	Anjelica	Lance
Group J	Harry L.	Amaia	Angela

Group K	Chuckie	Andres	Kevin	Sancho
Group L	Gabo	Patrick	Andrew	Vandela

*Note: SL students may go to the library for a study hall.  Also, when APAC people are back on Monday, they can choose to join a group making no more than 4 members total.

Grade

The same score will be given to each member in the group for each of the posts.  Scores will be graded using the Paper 2 rubric below and entered as quiz grades for the first grades of the semester.  Each group post will be worth 10 points

Rubric

Sample

Examine the vulnerability of one named country to natural hazards.

The Philippines is a truly geographically fascinating country.  Lying just north of the equator on the west end of the Pacific "ring of fire," the Philippines is arguably one of the most natural hazard-proned areas on the planet.  Coupled with a poverty rate of nearly 30% the Philippines is not only vulnerable geophysically but also in a human way that amplifies any disasters that do occur.

The country of the Philippines has gone through incredibly complex geomorphological change in order to get to where it is today and just like the rest of the planet it is constantly changing.  Take the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 for example, which blew so ferociously it ejected millions of tons of magma or even the more recent earthquake in Bohol which measured a ground-shaking 7.2 on the Richter scale.  These seismic events which damaged infrastructure and killed over 3,000 people are unavoidable for many simply due to the nature of the plate tectonics in the Philippines, making these events difficult to avoid.  

Even when we move to the atmospheric system, things don't seem to get much easier for the Philippines.  Because its located just north of the equator and so close to tropical waters, the Philippines lies smack dab in the middle of what I like to call "typhoon alley."  Typhoon Ketsana (Ondoy) was one of the worst storms to ever hit Metro Manila back in 2009 and just last November 2013 Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan), the largest tropical storm ever recorded, roared its way through the central Philippines killing at least 6,000 people with many more missing and presumed dead.

If the sheer force of these natural hazards wasn't enough, the Philippines is no doubt a developing country making it even more vulnerable than it should be.  Economic growth has been quite high over the last decade, peaking at around 7.5% but this growth is deceiving.  The Gini coefficient for the Philippines, which measures income inequality, is as high as the United States and even higher than war torn Sierra Leone.  This shows that the economic growth in the Philippines has not been inclusive.  The reality on the ground is that many people remain impoverished ultimately causing them to be incredibly vulnerable to natural hazards.

Below are a list of ways that could reduce vulnerability for a disaster:

1. Design and integrate early warning systems if applicable.
2. Improve reaction times by medical services.
3. Build sound infrastructure ie. buildings, roads, ports, telecommunications/internet.
4. Map the disaster.
5. Research more about alternative ways to predict the disaster.